At its 33rd party conference, the CDU has elected Armin Laschet as its new chairman. But what impact will the competition for leadership within the party have on the perception of the party and on the CDU’s election results in the upcoming German Federal Election in September 2021? While the profile of party leaders is of increasing importance for the electoral behavior of voters’, empirical studies shows that the public competition for the party leadership in governing parties such as the CDU leads to declining vote shares in the next general election.
Posts
Potent Executives: The Electoral Strength of Prime Ministers in Central Eastern Europe.
The notion that prime ministers in CEE are weaker and less `presidential’ is widely accepted. I challenge this position by comparing the personal influence of prime ministers on individual vote choice in parliamentary elections.
The Effect of Voters’ Economic Perception, Brexit and Campaigns on the Evaluation of Party Leaders over Time.
When and why do voters change their evaluation of party leaders? I analyse panel data from the UK, using a random effects model with within- and between-person effects.
How Established are Local Branches of German Parties?
I collected email addresses for an experiment, side benefit: I can tell something about local branches of German parties.
Dr. Merkel or: How the German Left Learned to Stop Worrying and Like the Chancellor
Have voters changed their evaluation of Angela Merkel during her 12 years in office? I find that Merkel has become more popular – especially among left-leaning partisans.